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External opinion · Market Week Brief

askSlim · S&P 500 Ausblick

Jun 26

askSlim · Market Week Brief (Steve Miller) · ▶ aktuelles Video ansehen

S&P 500 · sein Ausblick
bearish

The S&P 500 (SPY) is currently stuck in a 'diamond' consolidation pattern for almost two months, with leadership from the MAG7 and AI stocks struggling. Slim expects a market peak to form around early July or mid-August, followed by a significant correction of 10-20% into late summer and fall, potentially extending into October. The highest probability is a complex top with gyrations into August before substantial selling begins.

Pullback / Korrektur

A significant correction is expected into the August-September period, potentially extending into late September or October for higher-cap stocks. The magnitude could be 10% if the market rallies to new highs (780-800 SPY) first, or 15-20% if it breaks key support at 722.59 SPY. The bigger decline is anticipated in the second half of August and into September.

Revert / danach

A short-term bounce is expected in the next five to seven trading sessions before a likely move up again. A major reversal to the downside is expected after a market peak around July 7th or August 13th, which aligns with rising implied volatilities (VIX popping up).

Timing / Zyklen: Market peak around July 7th or August 13th. Significant correction into August-September, potentially extending into late September or October. MAG7 stocks are projected to fall into September-October. VIX is expected to pop into the 28-35 area in August-September. A short-term bounce is expected in
Key Levels:722.59780s to 800
Er bullisch · unser Read
Er bearish · unser Read
AAPL
AAPLApple Inc
Looks like a sell, likely to get slammed if it rallies, timing for trough into September or October.
Q 64WatchAMZN
AMZNAmazon.com Inc
Looking really bad, downside likely into late October or November.
Q 58AvoidGOOGL
GOOGLAlphabet Inc
Momentum negative, a sell, timing out to October for next trough.
Q 87HoldMETA
METAMeta Platforms
In weak shape, likely to continue to move to the downside, target 482 into September or October.
Q 66WatchNVDA
NVDANVIDIA
Momentum negative, cycle has peaked, downside into late August or September.
Q 85HoldMSFT
MSFTMSFT
Looks in terrible shape, downside into late September or October.
Q 38AvoidTSLA
TSLATesla Inc
Reasonable to expect continued downside, target 337 in October.
Q 39AvoidSPY
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Slightly bearish (short-term), neutral (intermediate-term).
Q 51AvoidQQQ
QQQInvesco QQQ Trust Series 1
Slightly bearish (short-term), neutral (intermediate-term).
Q 54Avoid
Other Markets
  • AI stocks: Thrashing, chaotic, huge volatility, struggling to make significant upside.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): Down approximately 4% on the week, stalling, neutral (intermediate-term), slightly bearish (short-term).
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA): Slight gains for the week, making new highs, very bullish (intermediate and short-term).
  • Russell (IWM): Making new highs, still very bullish (intermediate and short-term).
  • Bonds/Yields: Long-term rates are expected to fall, not go up, leading to a better bond market.
  • Oil: Dropped below $70, easing inflation fears, may be a lead indicator.
  • VIX: In a rising phase, which is normally negative for stocks, expected to pop up into the 28-30 or even 35 area in August-September.

Das Wichtigste

Prepare for a significant market correction of 10-20% expected in late summer/fall.
Monitor for a potential market peak around early July or mid-August before the larger decline.
Watch the SPY 722.59 level; a break below it would confirm a more negative scenario.
Be cautious with high-cap tech leaders (MAG7) as they show significant weakness and projected downside into October.
Consider the ongoing rotation; while high-caps struggle, the Russell (IWM) and Dow (DIA) are showing strength.
Prognose-Tracker · SPY seit Brief
objektiv: echte Kursbewegung seit dem Video
BriefBiasSPY damalsjetztseitherHoch / TiefTage
2026-06-26bearish728.99728.99+0%+1% / -1.7%1
2026-06-12neutral739.84728.99-1.5%+2% / -3.1%10
2026-06-05bearish735.65728.99-0.9%+2.6% / -2.6%15
2026-05-21bullish740.81728.99-1.6%+2.4% / -3.3%25

Kein Werturteil — nur die reale SPY-Bewegung seit jedem Brief.