IBD · Stock Market Today

Webby's Read

Aug 28

Market Assessment · FRI

Uptrend

The market experienced a downside reversal on Friday, closing near lows, as Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech hinted at further rate hikes, causing concern for rate-sensitive sectors despite a strong day prior.

Nasdaq21-day EMA

Experienced a downside reversal after a strong day, closing near lows, negating a 'follow-through day in spirit' and raising concerns about holding key support levels.

S&P 50021-day EMA

Down a quarter percent with a downside reversal on Friday, but managed to stay above yesterday's low and its 21-day EMA, though barely, and is in a 'power trend' but 'on the ropes'.

Russell 200050-day line

Took a significant hit, declining 1.4%, closing well below recent support and its 50-day moving average, indicating strong rate sensitivity and weakness.

Dow

Basically flat for the day.

RSP21-day

The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF closed weaker than normal at its lows, but remained above its 21-day, though the action was not a good look.

QQE

The equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 was more negative, down almost a full percent, undercutting yesterday's lows and nearing the close of two days prior.

MAGS

The Magnificent 7 ETF was up 0.7%, with mega-cap stocks cushioning the blow for the broader market, showing a contrast to the weakness in other areas.

IGV108.06

The software sector ETF showed a good look with a nice breakout yesterday, holding most of its gains and appearing to have potential for a sustained run, forming a base within a base.

GDX

Gold miners showed a 'not good look' with classic tight action, but a break above recent levels (implied failure or reversal).

Was tun?

Manage risk by expecting further weakness after Friday's downside reversal, especially for rate-sensitive small caps.

Monitor key levels

watching for indexes to hold above their 21-day EMAs and yesterday's lows early next week.

Favor cash-rich companies with strong

stable earnings and less reliance on borrowing in a rising rate environment.

Watch software leaders like CRM and the IGV ETF for potential sustained runs, especially those breaking out of bases.

Avoid fresh small-cap chases as the Russell 2000 shows significant weakness and vulnerability to rate hikes.

Webby's playbook rules

reusable IBD / risk rules mined from the video transcripts

Prioritize longer-term chart closes for market analysis.market-timing

wenn Analyzing market direction or trend. → Give more weight to weekly and monthly closes than daily or intraday closes.

“a monthly chart is more important than a weekly and a weekly is more important than a daily and a daily is more important than an inner day.”

Be wary of downside reversals on key closing days.market-timing | risk-management

wenn Market shows a downside reversal on a Friday, closing at the lows. → View as a cause for concern and a negative signal for the weekend.

“downside reversal today cause for concern... on a Friday closing essentially at the lows not what you want.”

Cut exposure if an index negates a Follow-Through Day.sell-rule | risk-management

wenn An index closes below the low of its Follow-Through Day. → Consider it a sell signal that negates the prior buy signal.

“If you close below the low of the follow-through day, it's a sell signal and we had that. So it kind of negated it itself.”

Distinguish between intraday breaches and closing prices for support levels.risk-management

wenn Price action around a key support level (e.g., FTD low, moving average). → Tolerate intraday breaches of support, but avoid closing below it.

“You can go below it on an intraday basis. You just don't want to close below it.”

Confirm moving average breakouts with a 3-day checklist.buy-rule | market-timing

wenn An index or stock moves above a key moving average or resistance. → Look for the low to stay above the level for three consecutive days with positive closes for confirmation.

“First, you want to get above it... Then you want to get your low above that item... And your third part... is to have your low above that that area three cons for at least three consecutive days and then close up.”

Expect short-term weakness after a downside reversal.market-timing | psychology

wenn A downside reversal occurs. → Anticipate approximately two and a half days of further weakness.

“whenever you have a downside reversal, my go-to is you're going to have two and a half days of pain.”

Keep market analysis focused on price action.psychology | market-timing

wenn Temptation to over-analyze external factors (e.g., bond market, currency). → Simplify analysis by primarily observing the price action of the specific instrument being traded.

“I just keep it simple. Just look at the instrument in question.”

Diskutierte Aktien

nach Aktion filtern · fett = Key Levels

AMZNHOLDFRI · 2026-08-28

AmazonWatch

Speaker holds a position, mentioned as one of the stocks on their radar and on Swing Trader.

watch at 00:01:47

PLTRHOLDFRI · 2026-08-28

PalantirHold

Speaker holds a position, mentioned as one of the stocks on their radar and on Swing Trader.

watch at 00:01:15

NVDAHOLDFRI · 2026-08-28

NvidiaHold

Speaker holds a position; stock went up on its numbers yesterday, which 'made sense'.

watch at 00:01:51

MSFTBUY SETUPFRI · 2026-08-28

MicrosoftAvoid

Formed a base after being 'left for dead', had a nice gap up, and has stellar, stable, sustainable fundamentals with an earnings stability rate of 4.

watch at 00:25:44

AAPLHOLDFRI · 2026-08-28

AppleWatch

Was positive on the day, with a good earnings line and an earnings stability of 5.

watch at 00:26:33

CRMACTIONABLE BUYFRI · 2026-08-28

SalesforceAvoid

Had a big move this week, breaking out of a base after being a 'dog' for a long time, with accelerating earnings and significant potential.

watch at 00:29:46

NOWWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-08-28

ServiceNowAvoid

Similar look to CRM, coming back after being 'left for dead', but with less impressive numbers.

watch at 00:01:15

MUTRIMFRI · 2026-08-28

MicronHold

Mentioned as a stock institutions might sell off from to move into more stable mega-caps.

watch at 00:26:21

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