IBD · Stock Market Today

Webby's Read

Jun 26

Market Assessment · FRI

Range

The market is experiencing a rotation away from mega-cap tech, leading to choppiness and a potential end to the power trend, while broader market indexes show underlying strength.

Nasdaq21-day EMA50-day linedown a quarter of a percent

The Nasdaq was down a quarter of a percent on the day and is currently below its 50-day moving average, appearing to be the weakest among the major indexes. It is forming a short-term head and shoulders top pattern and has tested its last m

S&P 50021-day EMA50-day linefractionally lower

The S&P 500 was fractionally lower on the day, but like the Nasdaq, it is considered one of the weaker primary indexes currently.

Russell 200021-day EMAdown about 3/10 of a percent

The IWM ETF was down about 3/10 of a percent on the day but is trending nicely with its low staying above the 21-day, suggesting underlying health in small caps.

Dowa little bit

The Dow was down a little bit on the day, with specific numbers varying.

QQQdown about 1.4%

The Nasdaq 100 ETF was down about 1.4% on the day, reflecting the pressure on mega-cap tech.

RSP21-day EMA50-day lineup on the day

The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF was up on the day and has been staying above its 50-day and generally above its 21-day, indicating a healthy general market environment outside of mega-caps.

EQAL21-day EMA50-day line

This broader-based ETF has been holding above a rising 50-day and is above its 21-day, suggesting that market carnage is specific to mega-caps rather than the average stock.

IBB

Money appears to be flowing into this biotechnology ETF, where the speaker holds a position.

XLV

The healthcare sector ETF looks great, with money flowing into this broad-based area.

ITB

The homebuilders ETF is starting to perk back up, breaking out of a double bottom this week, but it is still early and not an ideal entry point.

IYT

The transportation ETF's relative strength line made a notable move, indicating money moving into this sector.

PAVE

This infrastructure ETF showed outperformance recently as AI and tech came under pressure, but the speaker backed out of a position as it didn't follow expectations.

Was tun?

Adopt a conservative approach with smaller

more spread-out positions.

Prioritize individual stock picking over broad index exposure in the current environment.

Manage risk in extended mega-cap names by trimming into strength, especially near climax action.

Stay flexible and anticipate continued choppiness until market conditions stabilize.

Monitor key moving averages like the 21-day and 50-day for signs of market health and character change.

Webby's playbook rules

reusable IBD / risk rules mined from the video transcripts

Do not act on a power trend until the index is back above its 21-day EMA.market-timing

wenn Index is under pressure or below its 50-day SMA. → Do not act, wait for index to get back above 21-day EMA.

“you don't really act upon it until you start getting back above the 21day.”

Adjust your portfolio by rotating out of mega-caps into broader market stocks during leadership shifts.risk-management

wenn Mega-caps show carnage while broader market indexes (RSP, IWM) hold up. → Get out of mega-caps, rotate into slower, individual stocks.

“this carnage we're seeing is more specific to the mega caps... you had to adjust and get out a lot of those and then rotate”

Prioritize individual stock picking with smaller positions when major indexes are choppy.buy-rule

wenn Major indexes (S&P, NASDAQ) are choppy or not trending nicely. → Focus on individual stocks, spread out, use smaller positions.

“doing more stock picking rather than the index... spreading out to more individual stocks and smaller positions”

Sell into strength using the 21-day EMA as a guide during climax action or parabolic moves.sell-rule

wenn Stock exhibits climax action, parabolic move, or an exhaustion gap after a big run. → Sell into strength, don't wait for traditional sell signals, use 21-day EMA.

“When it's a climax action... that's where you using other things like the 21day selling into strength.”

Maintain flexibility by using smaller position sizes, especially during short-lived market rotations.risk-management

wenn Market is in rotation, or trade expectations are not met quickly. → Use smaller position sizes, be ready to back out if expectations aren't met.

“That's a lot easier to do if you're not doing massive position size. ... with these rotations, sometimes they're very shortlived.”

Adopt a conservative, spread-out approach when primary indexes look weak.market-timing

wenn Primary indexes (S&P, NASDAQ) look the worst or are below key moving averages. → Be more conservative, spread out, use smaller positions, or go light/cash.

“Our primaries being the S&P and the NASDAQ, those look the worst. ... You're more conservative. You're more spread out. Smaller positions.”

Confirm market health for re-entry by observing index closes and lows above the 21-day EMA for three days.market-timing

wenn Market is recovering from weakness and you are considering re-entry. → Look for close above 21-day, low above 21-day, closing up, and three consecutive days with low above 21-day closing up.

“three days with your low above the the 21day closing up. That is your basic checklist that are you okay again?”

Stay flexible and adapt your strategy to changing market character, even if previous rules stop working.psychology

wenn Market character changes, or normal playbook rules are getting you chopped up. → Be flexible, switch gears, don't plant heels, keep trying.

“you have to stay flexible and you have to keep trying... He would be flexible, bend like a tree in the wind.”

Avoid a distribution day when volume is lower on a down day.market-timing

wenn Index closes down on significantly lower volume than previous down days → Interpret as a silver lining, less bearish than a distribution day

“volume was quite a bit lower today. So silver lining we avoided a distribution day today”

Monitor key moving averages for support or resistance.market-timing

wenn Index or stock price interacts with 50-day moving average → Assess whether support is holding or resistance is being met

“S&P 500 finishing up fractionally on the day with finding support right at that 50-day moving average.”

Identify and follow strong uptrends in market segments.market-timing

wenn A market segment (e.g., small caps) exhibits a strong, sustained uptrend → Recognize strength and potential investment opportunities within that segment

“A strong uptrend remains for small caps.”

Watch if the market undercuts prior lows as a sign of weakening.risk-management

wenn Market index or leading stocks fall below previous significant lows → Exercise caution and reassess overall market health

“we have not yet undercut the lows from earlier in June.”

Diskutierte Aktien

nach Aktion filtern · fett = Key Levels

AAPLTRIMFRI · 2026-06-26

AppleWatch

A mega-cap culprit that has been a drag on the market, experiencing a significant drop yesterday.

watch at 00:05:07

GOOGLWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-06-26

GoogleHold

One of the best performers previously, now going through a base-building process.

watch at 00:05:17

MSFTTRIMFRI · 2026-06-26

MicrosoftAvoid

One of the mega-caps that has been a drag on the market, with money flowing out of it.

watch at 00:05:35

NVDATRIMFRI · 2026-06-26

NvidiaHold

A mega-cap that has been a drag on the market, with money flowing out of it and into other places.

watch at 00:05:39

METATRIMFRI · 2026-06-26

Meta PlatformsWatch

One of the mega-caps that has been a drag on the market.

watch at 00:05:41

BROSBUY SETUPFRI · 2026-06-26

Dutch Bros Inc.Avoid

200-day line

A stock that has been going sideways and not participating in the AI rally, but money appears to be rotating into this space, making it a potential stock-picking opportunity.

watch at 00:07:48

MUTRIMFRI · 2026-06-26

Micron TechnologyHold

Has run up significantly and is now exhibiting climax action, needing to consolidate and put in some time; down 10% recently.

watch at 00:15:34

SANDISKTRIMFRI · 2026-06-26

SanDisk (referred to in transcript)

Has moved up like a monster, becoming overheated and showing climax action; the speaker trimmed a fifth of their position into strength after a gap up and subsequent gap down.

watch at 00:08:54

QCOMWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-06-26

QualcommAvoid

down 8%

Used as a historical parallel to current high-flying AI stocks, showing similar parabolic moves and sharp pullbacks, including an 8% drop on a bad break in 1999.

watch at 00:09:01

UNHWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-06-26

UnitedHealth GroupAvoid

Looks like it wants to move higher, indicating money flowing into healthcare, but the speaker does not intend to trade it.

watch at 00:13:10

SMHBUY SETUPTHU · 2026-06-25

Semiconductor ETFWatch

Had another great day, up 2.9%, with chip equipment firms and memory stocks leading the Nasdaq 100.

watch at 00:04:30

TCOMTREND BREAKTHU · 2026-06-25

Trip.comAvoid

Was down 12% in the Nasdaq Composite today, contributing to the index's drag.

watch at 00:05:15

INODTREND BREAKTHU · 2026-06-25

InnoDataAvoid

A previously strong performer in the Nasdaq Composite, it was down 11% today.

watch at 00:05:21

TEAMTRIMTHU · 2026-06-25

AtlassianAvoid

A software name that was down 8%, indicating broader software weakness.

watch at 00:05:32

IGVWATCHLIST ONLYTHU · 2026-06-25

Software ETFAvoid

Was down about 1.4%, reflecting general software weakness in the Nasdaq Composite.

watch at 00:05:47

MUBUY SETUPTHU · 2026-06-25

MicronHold

12 11 38

Reported great earnings, recovered after testing a gap, and closed nicely, topping its prior closing high.

watch at 00:03:21

IYTBUY SETUPTHU · 2026-06-25

Transportation Average ETFAvoid

21-day moving average

Up 1.6% with a strong relative strength line, added to the leaderboard model portfolio due to a recent breakout and support off the 21-day moving average.

watch at 00:13:37

SEIWATCHLIST ONLYTHU · 2026-06-25

Solaris EnergyHold

50-day moving average10-week moving average

Up 4.5%, bouncing off its 50-day moving average and flirting with another breakout, with support holding at the 10-week line and a strong relative strength line. It provides modular power to data centers.

watch at 00:15:14

LLYADD ON PULLBACKTHU · 2026-06-25

Eli LillyHold

21-day line1,100

Owned in the leaderboard portfolio, it's bouncing off the 21-day line and the 1,100 round number after a breakout, showing strong growth in GLP-1 drugs and a dynamic pipeline.

watch at 00:18:20

PVTSWATCHLIST ONLYTHU · 2026-06-25

Unknown

Mentioned as a construction name that was up about 2.7% and is one of the top 10 holdings.

watch at 00:01:16

AAONACTIONABLE BUYTHU · 2026-06-25

TraneAvoid

500high from earlier in the week

Up 4.2% and crossing the 500 round number, it showed a good technical breakout on volume with its relative strength line pushing into new high ground. It's a provider of cooling services, including for data centers.

watch at 00:23:04

FDXFWATCHLIST ONLYTHU · 2026-06-25

FedEx FreightAvoid

A recent spin-off from FedEx with a messy technical pattern; earnings were released after the close, showing revenue of 2.4 billion, up 4.8%.

watch at 00:26:40

FDXHOLDTHU · 2026-06-25

FedExWatch

50-day moving average

Still hanging in there and holding support at its 50-day moving average, considered a good transport leader.

watch at 00:26:37

Letzte Episoden

FRIHow To Handle ‘Tale Of Two Markets’ As Nasdaq Weakens; LLY, SNOW, SPHR In Focus THUNasdaq, Mag 7 Lower, But Semis Shine Again: Solaris, LLY, Trane Tech In Focus