IBD · Stock Market Today

Webby's Read

Sep 21

Market Assessment · MON

Range

The market demonstrated significant follow-through strength, led by tech and the Nasdaq's record close, signaling a potential trend change despite concerns about broad market breadth.

Nasdaq50-day moving average line21-day moving average line27,000

The Nasdaq Composite was up 2.3%, closing in new high territory (a record close) and blasting above prior highs from May and August, crossing 27,000. It was a tech-led day, with the Nasdaq 100 up 2.8%.

S&P 50050-day line21-day moving average line

The S&P 500 gained about 1.5%, clearing a downtrend after pulling back to its 50-day line. It showed good power and welcome improvement, though it did not close at a new high.

Dow5% off the highs

The Dow was up 0.7%, but still requires repair work, with the DIA ETF about 5% off its highs.

Russell 20006% off highs

The Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) was up about 0.5% but remains over 6% off its highs. It started strong but pulled back intraday, failing to build on strength, indicating more work is needed.

Was tun?

Buy on strength

but avoid extended positions; consider incremental buys on strong days.

Maintain a disciplined weekend routine to identify leading stocks and setups.

Prioritize stock selection in strong sectors like chips and software, as broad market breadth remains weak.

Be prepared to adapt and change your mind

especially when key resistance levels are cleared.

Manage risk by starting small and using cushions from early entries to navigate pullbacks.

Webby's playbook rules

reusable IBD / risk rules mined from the video transcripts

Be willing to try again and change your mind when market evidence shifts.psychology

wenn Market action contradicts previous bias or a position was shaken out. → Re-engage, buy back, and adapt your strategy to align with new evidence.

“you got to be willing to try again... you have to be willing to change your mind and be get with the program here.”

Incrementally add exposure to leading stocks on signs of strength, avoiding extended buys.buy-rule

wenn Market or stock shows renewed strength (e.g., gap up, breaking downtrend, bouncing from MA). → Start small positions early and add incrementally throughout the day, ensuring not to buy too far extended.

“incrementally adding throughout the day... getting some of your positions started... buying on strength that you're not buying too far extended”

Preserve capital and mental readiness during choppy or trendless markets.risk-management

wenn Market becomes choppy or trendless. → Scale back exposure, protect capital, and maintain readiness to participate when a clear trend emerges.

“that's why we have our risk management rules in place... so that we don't get too hurt... we're ready.”

Prioritize strong stock selection and relative strength, especially in weak breadth environments.buy-rule

wenn Market breadth is weak (e.g., RSP showing weakness). → Focus on identifying and buying only the strongest stocks with high relative strength.

“the importance of stock selection... you do have to really be looking for the stronger stocks out there... looking for that relative strength”

Confirm market trend changes by observing sustained action above key levels.market-timing

wenn Market breaks above resistance, 21-day EMA, or shows multiple days of strength. → Look for the market to hold above these levels (e.g., 3 days) to confirm a credible trend.

“I'd really like to see us hold above that marked high... and also the 21-day moving average line... three days is kind of the magic number.”

Maintain engagement and a routine to prepare for market opportunities.psychology

wenn Any market condition, especially when not actively trading or at the end of the week. → Remain engaged, conduct weekend routines to find setups, and be ready to strike when opportunities arise.

“you have to make sure that you're remaining engaged... your weekend routines are so important... not getting caught flat-footed”

Focus on sectors and groups showing clear relative strengthbuy-rule

wenn A sector or group consistently outperforms the broader market → Allocate capital to leading sectors and stocks within them

“our whole methodology is about going where the strength is and right now uh that's in tech.”

Pay close attention to closing prices on daily and weekly chartsmarket-timing

wenn End of daily or weekly trading session → Evaluate market and stock strength/weakness based on where price closes relative to its range and key levels

“where we closed is such something that we focus on so much on our daily charts, but it's also very important on our weekly charts.”

Confirm strength above key moving averages with both close and lowmarket-timing

wenn Price attempts to reclaim a key moving average (e.g., 21-day, 50-day) → Wait for confirmation that both the daily close and the daily low are above the moving average line

“I'm going to want to see not just the close get above that, but also the low get above that line.”

Use multiple timeframes to gain perspective and avoid short-term noisepsychology

wenn Intraday volatility or conflicting signals on shorter timeframes → Step back and review daily and weekly charts to assess the broader trend and put action in perspective

“if you spend all your time on the intraday chart, uh it's going to be very hard to hold things because uh you know, every every little blip can kind of scare you.”

Avoid chasing overly extended stocksrisk-management

wenn A stock or sector shows extreme vertical movement and becomes highly extended from its moving averages or prior bases → Exercise caution, avoid new entries, or prepare for potential sharp pullbacks or the end of the move

“the more extended that you get uh the more it means you could be closer to the end of the move or at least uh get shaken out in a normal pullback”

Understand how strong trends end and plan for exitssell-rule

wenn Holding a stock in a strong, extended trend → Study historical examples of trend reversals and develop clear exit strategies, not just entry points

“it's not enough to know how to get into them, but you have to also know how to hold them and also how to get out of them.”

Diskutierte Aktien

nach Aktion filtern · fett = Key Levels

TSMADD ON PULLBACKMON · 2026-09-21

Taiwan SemiconductorHold

10-week moving average line

Breaking out today up 2.4% after an early entry last week, clearing a trend line within the handle. The weekly chart showed tight action, hugging the 10-week moving average line.

watch at 00:28:01

NETBUY SETUPMON · 2026-09-21

CloudflareAvoid

50-day

Up almost 9%, blasting out of an ascending base. Its relative strength has been undeniable, and it held up nicely despite a shakeout on Friday, prompting a buy-back and add-on.

watch at 00:01:25

XPBUY SETUPMON · 2026-09-21

XP Inc.Avoid

Up about 3.8%, this international stock is breaking a downtrend from a cup with handle formation, showing compelling action.

watch at 00:01:29

SMHBUY SETUPMON · 2026-09-21

Chip Sector ETFAvoid

50-day moving average600

The chip sector ETF was up 4%, showing a character change with a close above its 50-day moving average on Friday and strong follow-through today. The next potential stop is the 600 level.

watch at 00:23:26

SOXXBUY SETUPMON · 2026-09-21

Semiconductor ETFAvoid

566

This semiconductor ETF showed very strong action with a gap up, clearing a recent area of resistance. It has a marked high of 566 to cross.

watch at 00:21:45

IGBBUY SETUPMON · 2026-09-21

Software Sector ETFAvoid

107110

The software sector ETF outperformed, up 2.7%, getting above recent resistance. It has some work to do to get back above 110, with 107 noted as an actionable level.

watch at 00:22:42

IBITACTIONABLE BUYMON · 2026-09-21

Bitcoin ETFAvoid

3550200-day moving average line

Up another 6.5%, this ETF is blasting out of a bottom base after presenting an actionable entry on Friday. It tightened up and held above the 200-day moving average line, showing compelling follow-up.

watch at 00:24:04

ELFWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-09-18

e.l.f. BeautyAvoid

200 day

The stock recently moved back above its 200-day moving average after being below it for a period, catching attention.

watch at 00:01:15

TRGPHOLDFRI · 2026-09-18

Targa ResourcesWatch

Part of the oil and gas pipeline area, which has been a continuing strong trade.

watch at 00:01:40

MAGSBUY SETUPFRI · 2026-09-18

Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETFAvoid

21-day line

The Magnificent 7 trade is back on, showing strength and holding above its 21-day line, appearing on the verge of a potential breakout.

watch at 00:11:13

IGVHOLDFRI · 2026-09-18

iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETFAvoid

10-week moving average200 day moving average line50-day moving average line21-day moving average line

Down 1.4% today but up on the week and off highs, it is above a rising 10-week, 50-day, and 21-day moving average, having spent more time above its 200-day recently.

watch at 00:17:46

SMHBUY SETUPFRI · 2026-09-18

VanEck Semiconductor ETFAvoid

50-day moving average

Up 2.2% on the day, it retook a declining 50-day moving average and closed in the upper half of its range, showing potential for improvement if it can stay above this level.

watch at 00:18:26

ARCGWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-09-18

ARK Genomic Revolution ETF

Part of the ARK funds showing strength, specifically in the genomics area, which has been seeing a lot of strength.

watch at 00:21:49

ARCWWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-09-18

ARK Next Generation Internet ETF

Part of the ARK funds showing strength, with a lot of crypto exposure, which has seen recent gains.

watch at 00:22:08

IBITADD ON PULLBACKFRI · 2026-09-18

iShares Bitcoin TrustAvoid

200 day moving average line

Up 6.3% on the day due to notable regulatory news from the SEC; the speaker has a small position and started getting back in while it was above its 200-day moving average.

watch at 00:22:21

ETHAWATCHLIST ONLYFRI · 2026-09-18

Ethereum ETFAvoid

Mentioned as part of the crypto strength seen alongside IBIT and Robinhood.

watch at 00:22:21

XLKBUY SETUPFRI · 2026-09-18

Technology Select Sector SPDR FundAvoid

Looks like it's on the verge of a breakout, having already broken a downtrend and approaching a recent resistance area.

watch at 00:22:45

USOTREND BREAKFRI · 2026-09-18

United States Oil FundWatch

Reversing lower for the week after hitting highs and a recent breakout, indicating a potential trend break.

watch at 00:23:22

OIHTREND BREAKFRI · 2026-09-18

VanEck Oil Services ETFAvoid

Experienced a failed breakout, prompting the speaker to exit with a profit.

watch at 00:01:15

XLEHOLDFRI · 2026-09-18

Energy Select Sector SPDR FundWatch

21-day moving average line

Has pulled back a little but only to its 21-day moving average line, maintaining a nice trend above it since July.

watch at 00:23:58

XOPHOLDFRI · 2026-09-18

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFWatch

21-day moving average lineshorter term moving average line

Trending very nicely, keeping right above its 21-day moving average line and shorter-term moving averages, with more distance from its most recent breakout.

watch at 00:24:16

CRKHOLDFRI · 2026-09-18

Comstock ResourcesAvoid

21-day moving average line

The speaker holds a position, noting it's been on a 'nice tear' and is staying well above its 21-day moving average line despite a pause this week.

watch at 00:24:40

HOODADD ON PULLBACKFRI · 2026-09-18

Robinhood MarketsAvoid

50-day moving average line

Up 9% on the day with strong momentum, offering a second chance to buy after a failed breakout; it gapped up from a cup with handle, tested its 50-day support, and is now moving higher again.

watch at 00:22:21

AMDACTIONABLE BUYTHU · 2026-09-17

Advanced Micro DevicesHold

Shares were up 6.4% and were actionable, clearing an area. The RS line is coming up, and fundamentals show triple-digit bottom-line growth, underscoring its leadership in the chip group.

watch at 00:14:39

MRNAACTIONABLE BUYTHU · 2026-09-17

ModernaAvoid

15021-day

After a huge move and subsequent tightening, Moderna cleared a 'little flag area' and got above 150, making it actionable. It had a two-weeks tight pattern before moving out.

watch at 00:17:25

SPACEXBUY SETUPTHU · 2026-09-17

SpaceX

21-day line190 4980155150170

Despite a Starship flight delay, the stock showed nice action, hugging the 21-day line and becoming calmer. It's flirting with the 155 area, which is a viable entry point, with strong expected top and bottom-line growth and institutional money coming from Nasd

watch at 00:20:07

Letzte Episoden

MONWas This The Follow-Up Strength We've Waited For? Taiwan Semi, NET, XP In Focus FRIWas This Week A Game-Changer? Robinhood, Elf Beauty, Targa Resources In Focus THUStocks Rebound In Day Two Reaction To Fed; AMD, Moderna, SpaceX In Focus