Range
Dist6

Pillar 1 · Market Health

Market

Market Health
Under pressure
Exp: 50%
SPX 2HR AskSlim
Short-only
IBD Market Pulse
Correction
Intermarket
supportive
0H · 2T
Market Health
Under pressure
Recommended Exposure
50%
Several negatives / a severe one — get defensive.
view all rules →
⚠ Warning signs firing (4, 3 severe) — reduce exposure / don't add.
  • •ema21 loss (severe) — Index closed below the 21-day EMA (stall warning).
  • •below 50dma (severe) — Index closed below the 50-day SMA (character change).
  • •distribution cluster (sharp) — 6 distribution days in the last 25 sessions.
  • •defensive leadership (severe) — Defensives (staples/utilities/healthcare) leading cyclicals — risk-off rotation; be more careful.
2s10s 0.32HY OAS 3.32%
supportive· 0 headwinds / 2 tailwinds
✓10Y yield -45bp in 4w — within normal range
✓Dollar flat, Gold flat — no divergence

Power-trend checklist

Power trend off

  • Index daily low above the 21-day EMA for ≥ 10 consecutive days
  • 21-day EMA above the 50-day SMA for ≥ 5 days
  • 50-day SMA rising
  • Index closed up on the latest day

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)

Loading chart…
Market Indicator
IBD Market PulseCorrection
  • •-8.2% vs 50-day MA.
  • •Close is below the 21-day EMA; below the 200-day MA.
Index Levels · Distance to Close
Close
24,315
21-day EMA
26,032.34-6.6%
50-day SMA
26,497.06-8.2%
200-day SMA
25,092.57-3.1%

Signal Days · 80 sessions

Institutional pressure — the signal is the cluster, not a single day

Under pressure
Signal types
DDistribution
6/ 8%
avg 2+4
CChurn / Stall
13/ 16%
avg 3+10
FFollow-through
5/ 6%
avg 4+1
Direction
Up days
22/ 28%
avg 13+9
Down days
24/ 30%
avg 10+14
Flat / N/A
10/ 13%
avg 2+8

Seasonality · Jan–Dec

SPX monthly returns · current year / prior year / historical average

2026
2025
Ø 11y
2015–2025
Jan
+1.4
+2.7
+1.4
Feb
-0.9
-1.4
+0.0
Mar
-5.1
-5.8
+0.0
Apr
+10.4
-0.8
+1.1
May
+5.2
+6.2
+1.4
Jun
-2.0
+5.0
+1.5
Jul
+2.2
+3.2
Aug
+1.9
+0.3
Sep
+3.5
-1.5
Oct
+2.3
+1.4
Nov
+0.1
+3.8
Dec
-0.1
-0.1
SPX monthly return · 2026 live · avg = Ø 11 Jahre (2015–2025)

Detail — last 4 months

Δ% vs prior session · D = distribution · C = churn · F = follow-through

Aug 2026
Mo
Tu
We
Th
Fr
3
+2.1
4
+2.6
5
-0.8
6
-0.1
7
+1.3
10
-0.3
11D
-0.6
12
+0.5
13
+0.8
14
-0.3
17D
-0.3
18
-1.3
19C
+0.2
20D
-1.0
21
+0.4
24
-0.8
25
+0.7
26
-0.1
27F
+1.6
28D
-0.5
31
-0.1
Sep 2026
Mo
Tu
We
Th
Fr
1
-1.0
2C
+0.5
3F
+1.4
4
-0.3
7
8D
-0.3
9
-0.6
10
-0.7
11
+1.0
14D
-0.6
15D
-0.8
16C
-0.0
17
+1.7
18C
+0.4
21
+2.3
22C
+0.5
23
-1.1
24
+0.0
25
+0.5
28
-0.9
29C
-0.1
30C
+0.2
Oct 2026
Mo
Tu
We
Th
Fr
1
+0.0
2
+1.2
5
+1.1
6C
+0.5
7
-0.2
8D
-1.3
9
+0.6
12
-0.4
13C
-0.1
14D
-1.9
15C
+0.1
16
-2.1
19
+1.1
20C
-0.0
21
+1.1
22D
-2.6
23
-0.2
26
+0.8
27
+1.2
28C
+0.3
29
-1.4
30D
-2.9
Nov 2026
Mo
Tu
We
Th
Fr
2D
-1.1
3
+0.8
4F
+1.4
5D
-5.5
6
9
10
11
12
13
16
17
18
19
20
23
24
25
26
27
30
DdistributionCchurn / stallFfollow-through normal· 5+ distribution days in ~25 sessions = institutions selling.