External opinion · Macro Research / Global Markets

MacroVoices

Jun 25

MacroVoices · Podcast & Transcripts · macrovoices.com

Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna · In-depth macro research and interviews with elite investors.

Lyn Alden

2026-06-25

Lyn Alden: Is The War Really Over and What’s Next For Markets?

The market is prematurely celebrating the end of the Iran conflict, which could lead to renewed oil price volatility. Despite a hawkish Fed tone, a 'gradual print scenario' for the balance sheet is expected, supporting asset prices amidst persistent high US fiscal deficits. The AI rally, fueled by narrative and national security, is likely to continue longer than anticipated, though a future bust is probable given current valuations.

The Iran conflict is not fully resolved, with many details still to be worked out, suggesting continued geopolitical risk and potential for renewed instability.
Crude oil's recent sell-off to pre-crisis levels may be premature; if the Strait of Hormuz issues resurface, oil prices could climb again, making it prudent to refill strategic and commercial reserves now.
The Fed under new Chair Warsh is adopting a 'hawkish but vague tone' due to inflation concerns, but the underlying trend is a 'gradual print scenario' for the balance sheet, implying ongoing liquidity support.
The US dollar's breakout is driven by repricing of rate hike odds and capital flows into US equity markets (especially AI), but its strength will eventually pressure the US economy, leading to a choppy trading band.
US nominal debt levels and fiscal deficits (mid to high single digits as a share of GDP) are expected to persist, supported by the dollar's global reserve currency status, contributing to a 'two-speed' or K-shaped economy.
The AI/tech rally, despite concerning valuations, can continue longer than expected due to strong narrative momentum and national security implications, but a significant market correction or 'bust' is anticipated in the coming years.

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Brent Johnson

2026-06-18

Brent Johnson: There’s No Turning Back

The US-Iran kinetic conflict is currently paused but not over, with significant long-term consequences for global markets and geopolitics expected in the coming months. Brent believes the world is undergoing a de-globalization shift, where the US is transitioning from a rules-based order to an 'America First' strategy, likely maintaining its hegemony by leveraging its unique advantages.

The kinetic conflict between the US and Iran is winding down for now, but not expected to last, with full economic effects from the Strait of Hormuz closure anticipated in Q4 and Q1.
Commodity markets are experiencing a dramatic change, moving away from the 'law of one price' as prices diverge based on location due to supply chains, national security, and tariffs.
The US has shifted from a multilateral 'rules-based order' to a bilateral 'America First' approach, prioritizing its own good, a trend expected to continue regardless of political leadership.
The world is de-globalizing, and the US is likely to remain the global superpower, potentially transitioning from a republic to an empire, utilizing all its assets to maintain its position.
National defense is identified as a major investment opportunity, as countries worldwide will re-arm, spending money regardless of affordability due to increased global conflict.
US dollar stablecoins are a vastly underappreciated tool that will solidify the dollar's global currency status, transferring monetary sovereignty to Washington D.C. and offering significant investment opportunities.

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Larry McDonald

2026-06-11

Larry Mcdonald: The Migration is Upon us

Larry McDonald argues that markets are experiencing a "fourth quarter 2021 redux" with sticky inflation, a bifurcated consumer, and an "overdose" of tech IPOs reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. He anticipates a significant "great migration" from overvalued financial assets, particularly tech stocks, into under-owned hard assets, value companies, and healthcare. This shift is driven by persistent inflation, global conflicts, and the Fed's limited ability to hike rates.

Persistent Inflation & "Super Core" CPI: Inflation is proving sticky, with annualized "super core" CPI suggesting a return to 5-6% by year-end, indicating a new, elevated inflation regime (5-8% headline inflation expected in a year).
Bifurcated Consumer & Economic Pain: The bottom 60-65% of consumers are in significant pain, evidenced by underperformance in consumer-facing stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, and McDonald's, while the wealthy benefit from high money market yields.
Tech IPO "Indigestion" & Equity Overhang: Massive tech IPOs (e.g., SpaceX at 6% of US GDP) and secondary offerings are creating an "overdose" of new equity supply, with trillions of dollars in restricted shares set to unlock, forcing other market participants to sell liquid stocks (Mag Seven) to make room.
"Great Migration" to Value & Hard Assets: A colossal rotation is underway from financial assets (bonds, tech stocks) into hard assets, value companies (e.g., those owning oil/gas, materials), and under-owned sectors like healthcare, driven by a multipolar world, higher inflation, and attractive free cash flow yields in these areas.
Fed's Limited Hiking Capacity & Steepening Curve: Despite inflation, the Fed's ability to hike rates is severely constrained by the surging cost of debt service ($1.1 trillion annually), making the current flattening of the 2s/30s yield curve a "facade" and suggesting a future steepening.
Gold Miners as a "Hot Money Flush" Opportunity: Gold miners, having experienced a "hot money flush" due to shifting rate expectations and central bank selling, are now deeply undervalued (e.g., Agnico Eagle at 40% off with strong free cash flow and buybacks), presenting a compelling long-term risk/reward for scaling in.

Michael Every

2026-06-04

Michael Every: NAFTA and NAPTHA – Warcraft & Fartcraft

The discussion centers on the profound uncertainty surrounding the Iran crisis and its potential impact on global oil markets, with experts deeply divided on outcomes ranging from price drops to catastrophic spikes. It highlights the inadequacy of current central banking frameworks to address structural supply-side shocks and posits a shift towards 'economic statecraft' under a potential Warsh Fed, where monetary policy aligns with national security and foreign policy goals, potentially fragmenting global energy and financial systems.

There is a 'passionate dichotomy of views' on the global oil market crisis, with industry experts 'panicking the most' about potential catastrophe, while some macro commentators dismiss these concerns.
Current central banking frameworks, focused on demand management, are 'not able to deal with these kind of crises' or structural supply-side shocks like an energy crisis.
The US, particularly under a potential Warsh Fed, is shifting towards 'economic statecraft,' integrating the central bank's role with national security and foreign policy goals, moving beyond a narrow 2% CPI target.
In a severe energy crisis, the US might form a 'NAPTHA' (North American Petroleum and Hydrocarbons Trading Hub Association) with allies (e.g., Mexico, Canada, Venezuela, Guyana, Middle East, Asian refiners) to create a closed energy loop, fragmenting global energy markets.
The US could leverage stablecoins to reduce domestic interest rates, replace eurodollars globally, and sort allies based on their willingness to accept these digital tokens and align with US geopolitical objectives.
A future Fed might pivot from traditional QE for financial assets to 'tacit balance sheet support' for the physical economy, funding critical infrastructure, mining, shipbuilding, and military supply chains.

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