Uptrend
Dist4

Reference

Strategies

Four independent trading engines, each with its own rules and its own honestly re-validated track record. See Backtests & Track Record for the full walk-forward detail, or Playbook for the general engine policy (quality weights, gate thresholds, base-pattern taxonomy) these strategies share.

A · Long Hold
✓ GO

Own the 15 highest-quality stocks (by Relative Strength + fundamentals). Rebalance monthly. Buy new entries near the rising 21-EMA. Hold until quality deteriorates or the trailing stop is hit — no chart pattern required. The engine's core, proven money-compounding strategy: cut losses fast, let winners run.

Rules

UniverseTop 15 by Quality + Relative Strength
Entry zone-2% to +5% around the rising 21-EMA
RebalanceMonthly
ExitTrailing stop, or quality drops out of the top tier
Minimum RS to qualify≥ 70 (top 30%)

Track record

from the live walk-forward backtest

CAGR46.9%
Sharpe1.53
Sortino2.24
Calmar1.72
Max drawdown-27.4%
Win rate27.0%
Trades252
Final equity (from $100k)$501,172
Deflated Sharpe0.999
Deflated Sharpe < 0.9 → not statistically distinguishable from luck at this trade count.
B · Swing Reversal
NO-GO

Buy a former leader that washed out — 20-25%+ off its 52-week high — once it makes a confirmed higher low, shows bullish RSI divergence, and reclaims its downtrend line. A 5-stage lifecycle (ALERT → TRIGGER → CONFIRMATION → FULL) sizes in gradually as the thesis confirms. Excellent risk profile so far (tiny drawdown), but the sample is still thin.

Rules

Drawdown gate≥ 20% off the 52-week high, or below the 200-SMA
Structure requiredConfirmed higher low
Momentum requiredRSI < 40 at the low, recovered > 50 since
EntryConfirmed reclaim of the downtrend line (TRIGGER tier, confidence ≥ 65)
Initial stop-8%, then a 3-step trailing ladder (+12/+20/+32% peaks)

Track record

from the live walk-forward backtest

CAGR9.7%
Sharpe1.47
Sortino4.23
Calmar2.34
Max drawdown-4.1%
Win rate73.3%
Trades30
Final equity (from $100k)$147,165
Deflated Sharpe1.000
Deflated Sharpe < 0.9 → not statistically distinguishable from luck at this trade count.
C · Breakout
NO-GO

Buy a quality leader breaking out of a base on volume — the classic IBD method. Quality ≥ 80, early-stage bases only, accumulation-rated, buy zone within 5% of the pivot. Real, honestly re-validated edge (breakout-only filtering, excluding pullback dilution, improved Sharpe ~25%) — but still too weak to clear the statistical proof bar, even under generous accounting.

Rules

SetupVolume-confirmed base breakout (cup-with-handle, VCP, flat base, etc.)
Quality gate≥ 80
Base stageStage 1-2 only (early-stage)
AccumulationA/B/C rated only (no D/E distribution)
Buy zone≤ 5% above the pivot
ExitTrailing stop

Track record

from the live walk-forward backtest

CAGR4.2%
Sharpe0.40
Sortino0.55
Calmar0.14
Max drawdown-29.7%
Win rate31.6%
Trades187
Final equity (from $100k)$134,540
Deflated Sharpe0.265
Deflated Sharpe < 0.9 → not statistically distinguishable from luck at this trade count.
D · Pullback
✓ GO

Buy an already-strong leader (uptrend: price above both the 50- and 200-day SMA, 50-day rising) when it dips to and decisively reclaims whichever of the 10/20/50-day SMAs is nearest to price — treating the three as one confluence support zone rather than a single fixed period — adding to a winner, not fishing for a bottom. Generalizes the earlier single-MA design (10/21/50/150/200 swept, 50 days the prior winner); the confluence zone catches more, shallower dips at a real cost in win rate and drawdown. Passed independent CPCV validation.

Rules

Uptrend gateClose > 50-SMA > 200-SMA, 50-SMA rising
Pullback triggerDip to and reclaim the nearest of the 10d/20d/50d SMA confluence zone, same bar
Not extendedWithin 4% of the reclaimed MA, within 12% of the 50-SMA
Leader proxy≥ 15% run over the prior ~3 months
Initial stop-8%, then a 3-step trailing ladder (+15/+25/+40% peaks)
ExitTrailing stop, quality deterioration, or hostile market — no RSI top exit

Track record

from the live walk-forward backtest

CAGR10.4%
Sharpe0.57
Sortino0.82
Calmar0.30
Max drawdown-34.3%
Win rate28.0%
Trades232
Final equity (from $100k)$202,026
Deflated Sharpe0.631
Deflated Sharpe < 0.9 → not statistically distinguishable from luck at this trade count.